Increasing levels of ozone in the lower atmosphere have been
a topic of study and have been linked to a decline in agricultural yields
around the world. Most of these studies use modeling to predict lower products
in the future, but one recent study examined data from 2005 to determine damage
done to crops by ozone. This study was described in a recent article by RT.com
titled “India Ozone Pollution Kills Enough Crops to Feed Nearly 100mn Poor aYear – Study”. The article describes the loss of $1.29 billion in agricultural
products (wheat, cotton, rice and soybeans) in 2005 that has been attributed to
ozone. It is also possible that this new study could influence policies to put
pollution standards in place.
AFP Photo/Narinder Nanu
While the news article does properly cite the scientific
study,
it falls short in some aspects. The authors of the news article did not explain any of the possible shortcomings of the research that are clearly outlined in the study. There are possible shortcomings such as a lack of an accurate “AOT40 exposure-response function”. The article also did not mention other issues that have reduced agricultural output, such as the $1 billion in damages that was caused by flooding. It is likely that this was not mentioned because it would have subtracted from the importance of the ozone pollution. Another issue with the article is that it did not use any of the error calculations that were used in the study. Those errors could significantly change the meaning of the data. The economic impact may actually be less that $1 billion, which could mean that flooding has a larger impact on crop production in India than ozone pollution.
it falls short in some aspects. The authors of the news article did not explain any of the possible shortcomings of the research that are clearly outlined in the study. There are possible shortcomings such as a lack of an accurate “AOT40 exposure-response function”. The article also did not mention other issues that have reduced agricultural output, such as the $1 billion in damages that was caused by flooding. It is likely that this was not mentioned because it would have subtracted from the importance of the ozone pollution. Another issue with the article is that it did not use any of the error calculations that were used in the study. Those errors could significantly change the meaning of the data. The economic impact may actually be less that $1 billion, which could mean that flooding has a larger impact on crop production in India than ozone pollution.
Average O3 - induced crop production loss from AOT40 metrics for cotton, soybean, rice, and wheat during 2005. The production loss numbers are given in kilotons/grid box.
All in all, I believe the article accurately represented the
basics of the study, but fell short in some areas. It could have provided more
information about the data that it gave, as well as the possible shortcomings
of the article. But, all things considered, the article seemed free of
hyperbole and political influence. Because of this, I would give the article an
8/10.
I agree that more information explaining how the data came to be would be nice.
ReplyDeleteI am also curious about how India compares to other countries on this. For example, would we expect to see the same magnitude of crop production loss in the United States? My thoughts on this are that population density, possibly affecting the amount of NOx and other chemicals produced, may play a role in tropospheric ozone buildup and thus decrease crop production.
I dont know too much about the model, but I would assume that if scientists had accurate NOx emission data, crop production data and an accurate "AOT40 exposure-response function" they could use the same model. From what I understand, the AOT40 function takes into consideration ozone's impact on crop growth for a geographic region.
DeleteCould this model be used on a worldwide scale to determine ozone damage on crop production or would that be beyond the model's capabilities?
ReplyDeleteI think that this model works because it is for an area where they can accurately inventory the NOx emission and crop production. The research team specifically mentioned using 2005 because it was the only year that they could find useful crop production data.
DeleteThat is an incredible amount of crop loss.
ReplyDeleteIt is known that the amount of pollutants being released by India is increasing at a very fast rate, which could impact the amount of ozone being formed. With this in mind, did the article discuss future studies or monitoring? It seems like having more than one year's worth of data could be very impactful for future policy discussions.
I agree that the article should have given more data on how the crop losses actually happened like the scientific article did. I cannot believe how many crops were actually lost; the scientific article put it in perspective by stating that this was 9.2% of the cereals required every year. This crop loss is such a tragedy to happen to India because of the amount of people that live there that are already suffering from poverty and starvation. I agree that it is hard to imagine that all of the crops were lost from ozone pollution, although India does not have an air quality standard. I believe that flooding did have some impact on the amount of crops lost, because wouldn't this be happening in other countries as well? Or is it?
ReplyDelete