Forest Fires In Europe
Forest fires have long had significant impacts on ecosystems, private property, and human health in many regions of the world. With climate change leading to higher temperatures in many regions of the world the regions impacted by forest fires are likely to change or expand. Areas used to large scale fires, such as lodge pole pine forest in the mountain west of the United States, are well equipped to recover from a burn. However, regions such as the eastern United States or most of Western Europe are not as prepared both to fight the fires and ecologically to recover afterwards.
A recent article in the Daily Mall, a UK based newspaper reported on the risk of increased fire in Europe over the next roughly 80 years. The article was entitled "Climate change could lead to raging infernos throughout Europe: Scientists predict 200% rise in forest fires by 2090" and was based upon an article in "Regional Environmental Change" from April 2014. Key facts from the paper that the article focuses on are that "increased temperatures and longer droughts will create a 200 percent increase in raging forest infernos by 2090", that preventative measures would "keep that increase below 50 percent", and the more populous areas are at higher risk ("In Europe 95% of forest fires caused by humans". The article also seeks to tie in the journal article it is reporting on to the broader threats associated with climate change that were part of the IPCC's Working Group 2 report released earlier this year that mentions "storms, flooding, and heatwaves".
The article has some solid points, but also goes to great lengths to play up the sensationalistic aspects of the report. Language such as "raging infernos" and "violent conflict" seek to draw an emotional response from the reader. In comparison, as would be expected the journal article's language is more analytical using phrases such as "Our estimation of the potential increase in burned areas in Europe under "no adaption" scenarios about 200% by 2090 (compared with 2000-2008). While the article discusses that preventative measures and better firefighting could reduce that a few more details on this would have provided greater depth to the article. Also, though modeling is the only option for this kind of analysis, a sentence on the model and its application in the Daily Mail article would have strengthened its information content. Overall, the article is a mixed bag and I would give it a 6 out of 10 rating in terms of effectively communicating the journal article's findings.
Links:
Daily Mall article: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2748168/Climate-change-lead-raging-infernos-Europe-Scientists-predict-200-rise-forest-fires-2090.html
Original Journal Article: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10113-014-0621-0
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